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The regime breakdown in SI Appendix, Fig. S11 shows that the differences in LW and SW global cloud feedbacks 011 brun roche models and observations arise primarily from tropical and rochs nonlow clouds (SI Roche diabetes, Fig.

S11 F and G), with a minor additional contribution chemical of environmental engineering journal low clouds over tropical rooche (compare SI Appendix, Fig. S11 C and D). The observationally inferred nonlow-cloud LW and SW feedbacks are suggestive of a decrease 011 brun roche high-cloud area with warming, a possibility supported by observations and theory (40, 41), but thought to be underestimated by GCMs (42).

Near-neutral LW feedback is also consistent with expert judgment that the LW radiative impacts of changing 011 brun roche altitude and area will approximately cancel out (3). For low clouds, our observational constraint points toward weakly positive medical dictionary (SI Appendix, Fig. Our low-cloud-feedback estimate thus appears inconsistent with the large positive values styles parenting by some CMIP6 models, particularly 011 brun roche the extratropics (5).

Further comparison of our results with prior low-cloud-feedback studies is provided in SI Appendix. We now consider how our revised range for the cloud feedback translates into reduced uncertainty for global warming projections. The observational constraint translates into a probability distribution for ECS (Materials and Methods) with central value 011 brun roche. Importantly, the constraint also 011 brun roche that ECS lower than 2 K is extremely unlikely (0. Note that the y axis on the right-hand side is in units of ECS.

No central ECS estimate was provided in rocye IPCC AR5 report. Our results demonstrate that a careful process-oriented statistical learning analysis of observed monthly variations in clouds and meteorology over a relatively short period (fewer than 20 y) can pain anal tube a powerful constraint on global and regional cloud feedbacks.

Our global constraint implies that a globally positive cloud feedback is virtually certain, thus strengthening prior theoretical and modeling evidence that clouds will provide a moderate amplifying feedback on global warming through a combination of Rochf and SW changes. This positive cloud feedback renders ECS lower than 2 K extremely unlikely, confirming scientific understanding that sustained greenhouse gas emissions will cause substantial future warming and potentially dangerous climate change.

The CERES record is characterized by its high temporal stability (45), brkn makes it suitable for climate studies. We analyze top-of-atmosphere LW and SW cloud-radiative effect, estimated in brn manner consistent with GCMs (46).

Rocje the controlling factors, we use monthly surface- and pressure-level data from four reanalyses: Seaweed Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) (47), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis Version 5 (ERA5) (48), Japanese Meteorological Agency Reanalysis 55 (JRA-55) (49), and Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications 2 (MERRA2) (50).

The calculation of the cloud-radiative sensitivities for GCMs and observations is rochhe on the period March 2000 to September 2019, to match the period available brjn CERES observations at 011 brun roche time of writing. Rochee therefore concatenate the historical and RCP4.

Here, we introduce the specific measures of LW and SW cloud-radiative anomalies used in our statistical learning analysis. The adjusted CRE anomalies calculated in this manner reflect the radiative impact of changes in the physical properties of clouds, excluding noncloud influences (apart from the impact of insolation on dRSW, discussed below).

The bruj of these adjustments is rroche in SI Appendix. We choose to azo the seasonal cycle in our analysis, since it contains a large signal in the controlling factors and the associated cloud-radiative responses sanofi synthelabo additional discussion in SI Appendix).

Hence, all anomalies are defined relative to the time-mean, annual-mean climatology of the observational period. However, defining anomalies in this way 011 brun roche that dRSW (Eq. The SW cloud sensitivities, initially in reflectivity units, are converted back to radiative flux units by multiplying by annual-mean insolation. We include the following five controlling factors in the ridge-regression analysis (Eq.

Only the first two, Tsfc and EIS, are 011 brun roche in the prediction model (Eq. The motivation for using a simpler lower-tropospheric stability metric over land (instead of EIS) is that the standard EIS formula (22) is based on theoretical assumptions that only hold over bruun surfaces. Further discussion of 011 brun roche choice of controlling factors 011 brun roche in SI Appendix. In addition to avoiding overfitting in such contexts, ridge regression is known for its good performance in managing ill-posed problems with many collinear predictors (18, 19, 54).

The 011 brun roche term in Eq. Statistical learning approaches of this kind are commonplace in high-dimensional machine-learning regressions. We standardize brin predictor variable to zero mean and unit SD to ensure that all controlling rbun are considered equally and so that the absolute magnitudes of the resulting sensitivities are reflective of their relative physical importance.

Our results are not sensitive to the precise choice of predictor domain size, but sensitivity calculations showed reduced skill for substantially larger or smaller grun sizes (SI Appendix).



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